(DM rolls 1d20+3: 18!) She considers for a long time. "You may be right, but Max won't surrender to a shadow in the night. I propose this: When the King arrives, I'll convince Max to delay battle until we get news from Arthana. If it's really turned against us, I think I can convince Max to surrender instead of raising rebellion in the north."
"What if you can't convince him? Do you take responsibility for the dead this will bring?"
Question: Have things actually gone poorly for Arthana? Things have gone badly for the Duke in Arthana but very well for you.
"Four of the Duke's riders will arrive tomorrow from Arthana, they will confirm the truth of what I say. If the Duke pursues this folly many deaths will occur, alas, perhaps his..." Take our leave via the window.
The woman sounds shaken. "You have my attention. Keep talking, and make it good. How do you know so much about us? If not the King, who sent you?"
I identify as a Spellsword. "The Duke has already lost his support in town. Leading villagers to a battle means butchering them." I prepare to grab her and teleport with her to the Princess in case she attacks me.
The King has already destroyed the Duke's power in Arthana and is only a day away. Hartwin and the Duke's other allies have been neutralized. You can escape back to the Sea Cities and the King is willing to let his brother and you live.
Oh man I totally woulda voted #2 but you have weird boxes in there which I can't abide.